Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Last Debate Thoughts (for Tonight) ... |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
11:37 PM |
I tend to think that, had this been a traditional debate, the moderator would have felt compelled to bring up both Bill Ayers and the Keating Five. That might well have made a dramatic difference in how tonight's debate played out.
I still think McCain should have brought up Ayers, but a lot of smart people disagree...
As such, generally, I think this ended up being all too similar to the first debate. I think McCain did well, but so did Obama. But because McCain needed to gain some momentum tonight -- unless I'm missing something -- I don't think he accomplished that goal tonight...
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Coming Up: Post-Debate Analysis |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
10:34 PM |
Obama makes a good point that the issue that may be the most important in the future is probably something that nobody is talking about tonight. I think Hillary popularized this notion earlier in the year.
In 2000, during the debates, who would have thought that terrorism would be the defining issue of our time? Likewise, the conventional wisdom that the economy will be the most important issue a year from now may -- or may not -- be correct. We elect presidents for four year terms, so it's entirely possible that something else will be the pressing issue next year. That's why the debates should not focus solely on what's happening now...
Coming up, I'll be doing some post-debate analysis at CNN.com. You can watch it here. (Click the real time debate commentary thumbnail on the right).
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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GOP Operatives on State of the Race |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
10:08 PM |
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I emailed some of my smartest political friends and asked them if McCain can win -- and if so -- what he needs to do tonight. Here are a few of the most interesting responses. As you'll see, these folks are very worried about McCain's chances, and generally believe that things are out of his control -- meaning that the environment will determine who wins.
One respected consultant tells me this: I don't think there is anything he can do. I also don't think the race is over. The question is just how big a hole the economy is in, and how people react to it. If they blame us/Republicans/McCain he can't win. And i don't think it matters what he says. One young Ohio conservative writes this: Greetings Matt! I just voted for him, which was painful. Spent the last week camped out outside of a Columbus stadium where college students and homeless people were being shoveled into the polls for Ohio's first week ever allowing for registering and voting on the same day. The homeless were offered food, and often were left stranded. I think McCain loses Ohio no matter what.... so can he win without it? I was also at the Bruce Springsteen concert at OSU on Sunday, and the board of elections kept a location early on purpose so they could drag thousands of students into the voting booths. Also, the word is that regardless of the HAVA laws, Secretary Brunner has absolutely no interest in checking if people are voting in multiple counties or states. Last week, I could have registered at my parents house and voted twice- With the new rules and with lack of staff, there is no way they would have caught me. One talented young operative offered this strategy: Look, all the inside polling is saying that the economic crisis is killing Bush and it attached itself to McCain. If the race is about Obama, McCain has a chance. If the race is about the economy, it's going Obama. ... McCain has to be on offense tonight, has to hit the points he hit in Albuquerque yesterday. He has to get the media to focus on that. If he doesn't, the road gets more difficult with each day. Another smart young operative fears an Obama landslide: He needs an “event”. Either a national or international one or a significant Obama gaffe tonight (or at some point throughout the duration of the campaign). Since he can only indirectly control the gaffe, he needs to try to force Senator Obama into one tonight. Easier said than done and frankly I’m not sure how he does that. right now it seems like the middle/moderates/independents (however you want to classify that group) seems to favor and want more government during these scary and uncertain times so to try to hit him on standard higher taxes/big government is not likely to be very impact.
Not sure how much has been written about this, but I’m fearing an Obama/Dem landslide next month with an outside chance of 310 electoral votes and 61 or 62 Dems in the Senate. There’s a lot of time left I realize, but the trend is not good. Also, keep an eye on Dem turnout operations. Not saying they’ll be better than GOP, but likely to be better than 04 and much better than 2000.
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Townhall Format |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
9:07 PM |
I've got to admit I'm excited. This was not the case during the first debate. I think it's partially because of the unpredictable nature of a Townhall format. It's hard to predict what questions might be asked. But I also think it's because it is now clear that McCain needs to do well. Lastly, having seen McCain speak at a few Townhall meetings -- I like his chances... In fact, McCain's body language is already better. He's way better without a podium!
I'm talking about the debate. You can watch it here. (Click the real time debate commentary thumbnail on the right).
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Live From CNN.com |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
8:29 PM |
Greetings from CNN.com (the website, not the cable channel). I'm on with Jane Hamsher who can be read at www.firedoglake.com.
We are scheduled to do another hit at 8:40 PM (ET). You can watch it here.
Here's my take on tonight: McCain obviously needs to change the momentum -- and soon. Tonight is the obvious opportunity for that. But while a lot of people are saying he needs to hit a home run tonight, I don't think that's necessarily true.
The best way I can explain my theory is to use sports as the metaphor. Often it is not a homerun -- or a huge play -- that changes momentum. Usually, there is some small thing -- a dropped ball in baseball -- a fumble in football -- that begins the process.
McCain doesn't need to knock-out Obama tonight. But he does need to get something started ...
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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CNN.com's Debate Coverage |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
6:00 PM |
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I'll be on CNN.com (the website -- not the cable channel) tonight from about 8 - 11 PM, blogging -- and doing a bit of debate analysis. If all works out, you should be able to watch it right here ...
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Noonan Not Sure Whom She's Voting For ... |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
2:25 PM |
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Peggy Noonan's maudlin act has worn progressively thin over the years, but recently, her ideas have conspired with her supercilious nature to make her virtually unreadable and unwatchable. Last night on Hardball, she was caught in fragrante delicto with Chris Matthews, finally admitting that she's not even sure whom she's voting for...
Of course, Noonan is entitled to vote for whomever she chooses. After all, it's a free country. But, based on her own admission, I think it would now be appropriate for political TV shows -- which usually attempt to "balance" their panel discussions by including at least one token conservative (how nice of them!) -- to refrain from using her as the token conservative.
After all, if the topic of discussion on a given night is the presidential election, how is it fair to include journalists who obviously favor Obama -- but not a single person who, at least, leans toward McCain?
Clearly, Noonan no longer helps provide balance for that sort of show ...
(Note: While it is clear that John McCain is not a perfect conservative, in my estimation, the notion that any conservative could be confused over whether or not to support McCain or Obama -- based on their policies -- is pure folderol.)
... Consider what passes for equal time on most of the big political shows: A few weeks ago, I wrote about the panel on ABC's This Week, which pitted Paul Begala (liberal), Jay Carney (liberal), Claire Shipman (liberal) -- and, of course, host -- George Stephanopoulos (liberal) -- against George Will (lone conservative).
It is common for one conservative to go up against several liberals. More concerning, perhaps, is that the one conservative is often not very conservative ...
Consider the folks you see most often on NBC and MSNBC (I'm thinking of the big shows like Hardball, etc. here). The list consists of David Brooks, Peggy Noonan, and Mike Murphy (don't forget about Noonan and Murphy caught on tape). These are all intelligent folks, but I wouldn't confuse any of them for conservatives. The one thing they have in common is that they genuflect at the altar of the mainstream media elite. Brooks has long ago left the fold, Noonan -- who is known to evince distaste for Palin by grimacing -- doesn't even know whom she's voting for, and Mike Murphy is more of a Republican strategist than a philosophical conservative. What is more, Murphy obviously has a bone to pick with the folks running McCain's campaign.
Pat Buchanan is a regular MSNBC contributor. To be sure, Pat is decent man, a skilled raconteur, and a brilliant commentator. But he has long abandoned any pretense of being a mainstream conservative.
... I won't even go into CNN and whether or not David Gergen counts as a Republican or a Democrat.
My point is that conservative viewpoints are not being represented -- at all -- on many of the big network and cable political shows. Thank goodness for talk radio, blogs, and Fox News ...
Update: Watch the clip again and notice how they praise Noonan as a "great columnist" as soon as she says she's not sure for whom she will vote.
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Dick Morris on Obama and Ayers |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
11:51 AM |
Think Progress, a liberal blog, posted this video as evidence of racism -- a ridiculous charge. In this instance, I think Dick Morris makes a very compelling case that Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers should disqualify him from being president ...
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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Nashville Slapdown? |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
9:16 AM |
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The fact that tonight's debate will feature a townhall format is obviously very good news for John McCain -- the candidate who has arguably participated in more townhall meetings than anyone in history. He is quick-witted, humorous, and often disarming -- attributes that usually play well in this format. Compound that with the fact that (according to the rules) follow-up questions -- which might allow one disgruntled questioner to hijack the debate -- won't be allowed, and the debate format definitely favors McCain.
He will need it. With less than a month to go until Election Day, there are few remaining opportunities for McCain to narrow the gap. Tonight is one such opportunity -- so it is vitally important that he has a good performance. My advice would be to essentially make the same points that he made yesterday in New Mexico -- which is to say he needs to take off the gloves. But McCain also cannot make the mistake of changing his normal townhall schtick. It will require a delicate balancing act.
Regardless of his style, like a good football game, the winner is usually the one who is on offense the most. Obviously, McCain cannot avoid talking about the economy, but he must also make sure that the economy does not completely dominate tonight's debate -- this would be like playing most of the game on your own 40 yard line.
An obvious pivot is to talk about how, "confronting the economy will take a leader with experience and character -- who knows what it's like to fight -- because, my friends, this is a fight. My opponent doesn't have the experience or the judgment these times require. And I'll always fight for you!," etc.
By doing handling economic questions in this manner, he will avoid any obvious segues, but still be able to focus on character -- an issue he obviously wins on. ... As I write this, I hear a McCain spokesperson saying that character and economy are linked, because the American people need someone they can "trust" on the economy. So true...
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Tuesday, October 07, 2008 |
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New McCain Ad: 'Hypo' |
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
7:24 AM |
Script For "Hypo" (TV :30) ANNCR: Who is Barack Obama? KMOV TV ANCHOR (VIDEO): Obama's presidential campaign is asking Missouri law enforcement to target anyone who lies or runs a misleading television ad. ANNCR: How hypocritical. Obama's Social Security attack was called "a falsehood." His health care attack ... "misleading". Obama's stem cell attack ... "not true". Barack Obama. He promised better. He lied. JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.
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